U.S. Market Review

We suggest that US stock markets are in a topping final process for all time 5 wave cycle, trading its 5 of 5 wave after which we expect dramatic trend change for several years in severe correction, which targets lay at least in a previous 4th way trading range (2008-2000) or 80-90%% crash from current / expecting levels.

Best short candidates are the leaders of this bill cycle, I.e. FAANG shares or thru Nasdaq and S&P-500 futures indexes. Huge concentration has lead to enormous disproportion in a almost every portfolio with average 4x leverage and luck of cash due to low rates period, “cash is trash” and “buy the dip” paradigm. Everything bubble hype: FOMO, YOLO, SPAC, IPO, CRYPTO, VC, PE, HY, ETF, MEMO sticks, technology (HFT) and ease of access to market operations thru aka Robinhood applications.

There is no safe heaven despite common sense, as even Gold received mass market access for general public with huge turnover by countless ETFs and HFT strategies.

So by the time market reached its peak all asset classes are deemed to free fall correction even real estate, there we face same bubble has been created.

The biggest threats are hiding in bonds due to duration risk (seen in recent months with regional bank crisis) and derivatives, notional value which over counts any of regulators rescue resources worldwide. No one is discounting Infrastructure risks (example of Credit Suisse got busted)

In our option you can only hide in USD cash or short terms US treasury notes and bills.

Most of Soft commodities enjoy bull cycle rise.

We see particular opportunities in Soybens, Wheat, Sugar, Coffee

Here is out top 2023 Trades of the year:

Short

Apple stock

S&P-500 futures

Nasdaq futures

Long term US bonds

Soybeans

Cocoa

Long

Natural Gas (after it hit its low in 1.90 range)

Sugar

USDMXN

DXY

Silver